An analysis of seat capacity for travel to the top ten international airports in Africa reveals that Lagos is seeing substantial declines in both domestic and international capacity mainly because Arik Air is cutting 53% of its seats for the rest of 2017. During the coming five months, August – December 2017, there will be 16% fewer airline seats on domestic routes and 9% fewer on international routes to and from Lagos.
Most of the other airports in Africa’s top ten are seeing a healthy growth in capacity, which is more international than it is domestic. However, the most notable exception to this trend is Nairobi, which is seeing a 22% boost in domestic capacity. These findings are part of a wider report on travel to Africa produced by ForwardKeys, showing double-digit growth in flight arrivals for the first half of this year and little indication that the pace of growth will slow down soon.
The report also reveals that in the first seven months of the year, 1st Jan – 31st July 2017, total international flight arrivals grew by 14.0% over the same period in 2016. Most significantly, growth was stronger for travel to and from the continent than within the continent. Arrivals from Europe, which make up 46% of the market, were up 13.2%. From the Americas, arrivals were up 17.6%; from the Middle East, they were up 14.0% and from Asia Pacific, they were up 18.4%. By comparison, intra-African air travel, which makes up 26% of the market, was up 12.6%.
2017 Year-To-Date (YTD): the Americas, Middle East and Asia Pacific arrivals grew robustly
International arrivals in Africa have continued the positive performance of the second half of 2016 into 2017, welcoming an increase of 14.0% in 2017 year to date. Longer haul arrivals from the Americas and Asia Pacific, and the Middle East performed better than intra-Africa international arrivals and European arrivals into Africa; the latter two flows grew below the overall international growth.
2017YTD: Chinese tourists helped along with tourism recovery in Africa
African destinations have enjoyed a one-year-long recovery after the health and security concerns in 2014 and 2015 gradually faded: Egypt and Tunisia are the destinations leading the recovery. Nigeria is the only underperforming one among Top-10, because its intra-African arrivals declined seriously along with its intra-African capacity decline. • Morocco and Tunisia benefited from their visa exemptions for Chinese travellers, receiving +450% and +250%, respectively, in Chinese arrivals 2017 year to date.
Forward looking
Forward bookings for Africa for the rest of 2017 are +16.8% ahead of last year, thanks to the extra early bookings from the Americas and Europe. Asia Pacific and Middle East are lagging comparing the on-thebook variations to the 2017 year-to-date variations: Asia Pacific outlook is affected by a sharp decrease in early bookings of Chinese groups to Mauritius, while Middle East has negative outlook not only for Africa, but for worldwide destinations in general, due to its ongoing regional economic and geological crisis.
Among the Top 10 African airports, ranked by total scheduled capacity for August to December 2017, 8 airports are welcoming growth for both domestic and international capacity; Nairobi is the only airport seeing bigger growth for domestic capacity than that of international capacity. • Lagos is the only airport seeing declines in both domestic and international capacity, mainly because Arik Air is cutting 53% of its seats for the rest of 2017.
2017YTD: EAC attracting intra-African and Middle East travellers more
EAC destinations received a robust growth of 14.3% for 2017 year to date. Comparing to the African performance per origin continent, EAC destinations were more appreciated by intra-African travellers while welcoming a better growth in Middle East arrivals.
Forward-looking international arrivals in EAC are 16.4% ahead of last year. Germany, France, and Italy in Europe, the U.S.A. and Canada in the Americas, and South Africa and Nigeria, the two biggest markets in Africa but out of EAC, all see double-digit growth from last year’s booking situation. While all EAC destinations have a weak outlook with Middle East markets, only Kenya has a weak outlook with Asia Pacific: a lack of bookings from India and Japan is not compensated by the increasing bookings from China.
Six new routes
There are 6 new routes scheduled for the rest of 2017 for EAC: Kigali is welcoming one route to reach both London and Brussels and one route to connect Mumbai, both operated by RwandAir; Kilmanjaro will have 3 weekly flights from Dubai by Flydubai starting end of October; Dar Es Salaam has one more weekly flight to Dubai (DWC airport) by Inter Iles Air while Nairobi is linked to Muscat with 4 weekly flights by Oman Air starting August 2017; Nairobi also has a new route from Yeman. Dar Es Salaam lost the flights to Muscat since January 2017, causing the significant overall decrease of 12% in long-haul international capacity.
