Global trade turbulence has been the norm around the world, marked by sweeping US tariffs and persistent geopolitical frictions. However, the Eastern Africa region has managed to defy expectations of a downturn, actively expanding its export footprint on the world stage.
According to recent data from the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, the region has carved out new opportunities in the shifting landscape, reporting a surge in economic activity, driven by a combination of strategic trade diversions, a continent-wide push for integration, and a fortuitous boom in global commodity prices.
The region has witnessed a significant uptick in exports to the United States. Despite the introduction of the broad “Liberation Day” tariffs in April 2025, which imposed heavy duties on major Asian exporters, countries like Kenya, Democratic Republic of Congo, and Ethiopia have seen their American-bound exports swell.
The DRC led this charge with an increase of over a billion dollars in the April-July 2025 period compared to the same timeframe in 2024, while Ethiopia and Kenya posted staggering increases of 95% and 22% respectively. This counterintuitive growth is largely a tale of relative advantage; while Eastern African nations faced tariffs, the levies imposed on competitors like China were far steeper.
With Chinese exports to the US falling by 35.6%, strong American demand for commodities created a vacuum that Eastern African producers were poised to fill.
Simultaneously, the engine of intra-African trade is gaining powerful momentum. In 2024, trade within the East African Community soared past Sh1.42 trillion ($11 billion) for the first time, a striking 22% jump from the previous year.
This growth in internal commerce, which far outpaced the meagre 0.4% growth in exports to markets outside the continent, is being fuelled by a dynamic exchange of agricultural produce, textiles, chemicals, cement, and pharmaceuticals. This trend highlights the burgeoning potential of regional value chains and the transformative promise of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which is steadily weaving the economies of the region into a more cohesive and self-reliant whole.
Further propelling this export performance is a favourable swing in the global commodities market. Between January 2024 and July 2025, gold prices skyrocketed by over 60% and coffee prices nearly doubled, providing a windfall for major producers. Tanzania and Uganda capitalised handsomely on the gold rush, with Uganda also riding a wave of strong exports for coffee, tea, fish, and flowers. Kenya saw its tea exports hit a record Sh219.95 billion ($1.7 billion) in 2024, highlighting how the region is benefitting from robust global demand.
However, beneath these encouraging headlines, significant structural vulnerabilities persist. The export landscape is becoming increasingly dominated by minerals, which now account for 53% of all Eastern African exports. This commodity reliance casts a shadow over the region’s industrial ambitions, as the share of manufacturing in exports has steadily declined to just 17.5% in 2024.
Recognising these challenges, governments are responding with a wave of strategic initiatives and infrastructure investments. Kenya is expanding the Dongo Kundu Special Economic Zone, Tanzania has completed the expansion of Tanga Port and initiated new agricultural corridors, and Uganda has signed a pivotal agreement with Kenya to dismantle non-tariff barriers. Meanwhile, Rwanda is developing Rusizi Port to enhance logistics, and Ethiopia is upgrading border posts and industrial parks.
As the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) remains uncertain, this period of resilience offers a critical blueprint for the future. Eastern Africa’s recent success demonstrates its capacity to adapt, but its long-term competitiveness will hinge on a concerted effort to diversify export markets, reduce its reliance on volatile commodities, and decisively revitalise its manufacturing sector.
