BY ISAAC SWILA
Questions abound as to the likely path Kenya’s foreign policy will take in the next five years after bitterly contested elections that saw President Uhuru Kenyatta get a fresh five-year mandate – subject to the outcome of the petition in the Supreme Court by the main Opposition.
Traditionally, Kenya’s foreign policy has slanted towards the West with the USA, UK, Germany, amongst other European powers, being Kenya’s biggest partners.
This was the scenario at the dawn of independence, and it continued throughout the 24 years of misrule under retired President Daniel arap Moi.
However, under Mwai Kibaki, Kenya took a paradigm shift opting for “a stronger open market competition” which saw her get cosy with the Far East, and China in particular.
This approach unsettled the European powers but Kibaki, undeterred, continued to aggressively look East as he bid to get Kenya’s economic progression kicking after years of lull under the leadership of Moi.
The net effect of Kibaki’s administration was the opening up of the Kenyan market, owing to the bilateral Kenya-China ties, with several Chinese companies setting bases in Kenya where an enthusiastic market was readily available.
The culmination of the Looking East policy came in May 2010, when President Kibaki made a five-day State visit to China – a similar one he had made midway through his first term in August 2005 – where he held bilateral talks with his Chinese counterpart President Hu Jintao in Shanghai during the opening ceremony of the Shanghai World Expo.
It is as a result of Kibaki’s robust approach towards entering a solid partnership with China that the friendship between the two countries and friendly cooperation has experienced smooth development, especially in terms of infrastructure and technology for Kenya, largely driven by experts from the Asian giant.
In recent years, there have been frequent exchanges of high-level visits, and further strengthening of political trust between the two sides.
Economic and trade cooperation is in full vigour, and the outcome of the Beijing Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) as well as cooperation projects agreed upon by both sides have been implemented enthusiastically.
And when Uhuru Kenyatta took charge in 2013, he stuck to the familiar path that his predecessor had chosen, continuing with the cordial foreign elation between Kenya and China.
Uhuru’s decision to stick to the East rather than shift to the West, which had been a darling of the senior Kenyatta, may have been informed by the fact that the Western powers had been lukewarm in supporting his presidential bid in 2013 during which the crimes against humanity charges at the International Criminal Court (ICC) hung over his head and that of his deputy William Ruto.
In fact, Western governments issued a strong caution in the run- up to his election in 2013, cautioning, “choices have consequences.”
Uhuru worked hard to dislodge the ICC monster and then engaged in another spirited charm offensive midway through his first term spearheaded by Foreign Secretary Amina Mohamed.
Before long, the chains came off falling one after the other – as he morphed into a darling of the West – with major world leaders trooping to Nairobi on various missions, signifying the thawing of relations between Kenya and the world powers.
The score for Kenyatta has been so huge so much so that international relations experts argue that at this point in time, the West is more at ease dealing with Uhuru rather than an uncertain Raila Odinga. This school of thought is given credence by the fact that nearly all the international election observers were quick to rubber-stamp Uhuru’s victory, giving the electoral process a clean bill of health even before the official release of the results.
And should the Supreme Court uphold his win, this being his last term and with virtually nothing to lose or prove, could we see a change in foreign policy? Could his administration chart a different path from the one of the last five years and gravitate more towards the West? And what if Supreme Court annuls his victory, orders fresh polls and Odinga claims an unlikely victory?
International Relations expert, Erick Irungu, a lecturer at Moi University’s Department of Political Science, Governance and International Relations, argues that Kenya’s foreign policy is unlikely to witness any change under Uhuru’s presidency, but some major changes may be witnessed under a Raila leadership.
“For us to understand the direction the country may take in terms of foreign policy, we must first of all look at Jubilee manifesto, where we realise that the President is very keen on preserving the status quo. This is a President who wants to retain the status quo. He perpetuated the Far East policy, which was started by Kibaki and I don’t foresee many changes. The traditional partners who have stuck by him are likely to gain.
“He had men who were dedicated in ensuring that he was cleared of the ICC charges; his relations with the West are improving, and he’s likely to continue with mending the fences but in terms of foreign policy I don’t see major changes. He already has a first round victory in the elections and should the court uphold his win, we should look towards the same thing. For instance the relation with Somalia will remain strong. He has insisted that he will not be pulling our troops out of Somali and that is likely to be the case,” Irungu says.
In the unlikely event that Odinga gets a path to the Presidency, Kenya’s foreign policy may realise a major radical shift, top amongst them, the withdrawal of Kenyan troop from AMISON in Somalia.
Odinga has been adamant that the soldiers must be recalled and deployed to man the borders from within to protect the citizens from terror attacks rather than dying in a foreign land.
In his four and half years in power, Kenyatta has cemented his relationship with China. In March this year, for instance, President Kenyatta was among the 28 world leaders who were invited to Beijing to the development summit whose theme was “strengthening international cooperation and co-building the ‘belt and road’ for win-win development”.
China has also partnered with Kenya over the years in the delivery and upgrading of major roads, including the Nairobi Northern, Southern and Eastern bypasses.
Kenyatta’s visit also saw China elevate its bilateral relationship with Kenya to one of comprehensive strategic cooperation. The two countries entered into multi-billion deals when President Uhuru Kenyatta held bilateral talks with Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang to cement the cooperation.
China also offered Kenya a grant of Sh19.2 billion to mark the elevation of the two countries’ relationship, and this came after the Kibaki Government had received help in the construction of the Thika Highway.
Kenya also got another pledge of Sh2.4 billion for drought mitigation measures and further Sh500 million support for refugee affairs.
With all these benefits, the Moi university don believes that economic diplomacy will play a big part and we will see a lot of engagements not just with China and the rest of “friendlier countries” but also in the east African community, where economic integration is one of the key pillars.
Apart from that, Kenya’s new 472km (293 mile) railway– the country’s biggest infrastructure investment since its independence in 1963 – has been financed by Chinese loan at a cost of and $3.2bn.
An Odinga presidency could see more or less of interaction with China, but with countries such as Germany, US and Britain more likely to dominate.
