Going by the wave of emerging realignments, Jubilee Party rebels will soon realize that they have to subsist in the ruling party to the logical conclusion of their terms. How they do it is what they should be strategizing on and not how to come up with a countermove to the President’s purge
BY JACOB OKETCH
Political temperatures in the country keep rising as President Uhuru Kenyatta continues to oversee a radical purge of leadership structures of the ruling Jubilee Party, both at the Senate and the National Assembly. The latest casualty of these measures is the indefatigable Garissa Township Member of Parliament Hon. Aden Duale who was axed from the position of Majority Leader in Parliament.
Unlike his colleagues especially in the Senate who suffered the same fate more so former Leader of Majority Kipchumba Murkomen and Deputy Speaker Prof. Kindiki Kithure, Duale displayed a rare maturity in party politics by bowing out with dignity and humility. His farewell address to the National Assembly is a demonstration of remarkable leadership. He maintains that he is not bitter because of the ouster. His tribute to Members of Parliament and other organs of the National Assembly is demonstrative of his gratitude to the party for appointing him to the position. He also had encouraging words to the incoming Majority Leader Hon. Amos Kimunya,
the MP for Kipipiri.
It was a radical departure from the trend where most of those who have been removed from their positions vehemently vilify the government in a manner likely to suggest that those positions are their birthrights. Take for instance the manner in which Elgeyo Marakwet Senator and former Majority Leader in the Senate who has since taken hitting out at the Government over one issue or another. It is not hard to see that his is a case of sour grapes.
Be that as it may, it appears that the purge at Jubilee is a carefully choreographed script which is far from over. Allies of the Deputy President seem not to have slowed down in their intransigence. A new place of engagement has been unveiled in the name of Jubilee Asili. From the look of its logo, it is apparent that a splinter is envisaged; the removal of the red colours of the original Jubilee Party logo suggest some form of estrangement from the original TNA Party’s red.
Senator Kipchumba Murkomen 
Senator Prof. Kindiki Kithure
This, in my view, is ill advised. Much as the ruling party is facing challenges, the rebel faction ought to understand that they have a duty to carry out the mandate of the party up to the expiry of their terms in Parliament. There is no way these legislators can fulfill their mandate without reference to the ruling party where they also pay subscription fee. Going by the wave of realignments that we have started to witness, the rebels will soon realize that they will have to subsist in the ruling party to the logical conclusion of their terms. How they do it is what they should be strategizing on and not how to come up with a countermove to the President’s purge.
Furthermore, going by the economic scandals that have rocked most of the counties, there is a possibility that the Government is reinforcing her anti corruption strategies to net errant party members who continue to defy and disrespect the party line. Much as this will be viewed as some form of witch-hunt, the fact that some of these leaders have skeletons in their cupboards is reason enough to go after them. Maybe, this is the moment the President has been waiting for, to strike at corrupt members of his administration who have the audacity to question his actions both in the party and in government.
The Jubilee purge has also occasioned the cooperation pacts between it and Wiper Democratic Party and Chama cha Mashinani. Now that it is clear that the President will stop at nothing to secure his legacy, any political formation outside the BBI agenda will find it very hard to play a pivotal role in the succession game. Those who are crafting alliances with the embattled Deputy President stand to be isolated from the table where weighty decisions concerning the future trajectory of the country will be made. The ruling party’s cooperation agreements with the said parties are a pointer to a grand coalition almost reminiscent of National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) in 2002.
That puts the Western region’s leaders in sharp focus. ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi seems to have made up his mind to contest the presidency. What I find disconcerting is the perennial claim that the ODM leader Raila Odinga has repeatedly reneged on coalition agreements. What we need to understand is that coalitions are crafted with the ultimate prize – power, in mind. In a situation where the coalition fails to ascend to power, the promises made cease to be binding because neither of the partners gained in the real sense of the word. As such, it is only fair that they keep trying by other means available and necessary.
Foremost, Western region leaders in Musalia Mudavadi and Ford-Kenya’s Moses Wetangula ought to realize that anything outside the BBI will not fly in 2022. Their deliberate slight of the initiative could come to haunt them. Again, their obsession with their backyard does not help matters. It is assumed, contestably, that their strongholds are a given and so they should hit the road running, canvassing for votes from other parts of Kenya. Otherwise, their parties will continue to be viewed as ethnic formations that cannot compete with other parties that project a national outlook.
Mudavadi’s claim that he has all along been supporting others and that it is now his turn does not wash. In the 2007 elections, Raila bypassed William Ruto (who had earned himself an unrivalled status in the party hierarchy) to pick him as the Deputy Prime Minister in the Grand Coalition Government that was crafted after the disputed presidential election that led to Kenya’s worst political violence since independence. In the 2013 elections, Musalia decided to go it alone. Evidently, he cannot claim to have been sacrificing for others all the time. The ANC leader ought to find a way of working with other leaders. That will be his most realistic chance.
The point the Tangatanga (ruling party’s splinter group) brigade is missing is that the President is so determined not to be a lame duck President in his twilight years in office. Now that he has dismantled the powerbase of his deputy, the renegades should eat humble pie and toe the party line. Given that they were sponsored by the ruling party, they cannot afford antagonizing the party at a time when their contribution is direly needed by the electorate. They have to accept the fact that the Deputy President is limited as far as control of the party organs is concerned. The President straddles the party like a colossus and his preference will carry the day as far as running of the party is concerned. The fury with which they absconded the latest Parliamentary group meeting indicates that they are still out for a no-holds-barred contest with the President and this does not help their agenda at all.
That the Deputy President is unable to drum up support for his 2022 bid due to the Coronavirus pandemic is there for all to see. Furthermore, the DP’s well oiled machinery that ensures that his troops are facilitated for meetings seem to have hit a brick wall when the Government drastically reduced the office of the DP’s budget. The President has even gone further and co-opted that office to that one of the Office of the President, meaning that the second in command has lost the freedom to do as he pleases. The DP’s strategy of mobilizing church communities to rally behind him took a hit when the Government banned church meetings, a development that still stands despite the fact that other facilities such as restaurants have been reopened.
The Deputy President should also be alive to the fact that he stands to lose some of his allies as a result of him being isolated by the powers that be. And this has started happening in earnest. The vocal women representative from Naivasha, Hon. Cate Waruguru seems to have set the ball rolling. The notion that the DP’s following will shrink further is demonstrated by the zeal with which central Kenyan leaders rallied behind the transport CS Macharia after Nyali MP Mohammed Ali attempted to institute impeachment proceedings leading in Parliament. Even the DP’s foot soldiers in the region such as Kiharu Mp Hon. Ndindi Nyoro and his Mathira counterpart Hon Rigathi Gachagua broke ranks with the Jubilee rebels and strongly defended the embattled CS against the accusations.
One thing that is rarely talked about is the ethnic matrix as far as the presidency is concerned. Central Kenya region has produced three Presidents including the incumbent. The Kalenjin community had the longest serving President in the late Daniel Arap Moi. Other communities have not been lucky yet. The idea that another member of the Kalenjin community is hell-bent on being the next President may not resonate with most Kenyans as a way of checking dominance. This view seems to be tribalistic but it cannot be wished away. When Tanzania, for instance decided to rotate the presidency between the mainland and the island, it was because of concerns such as the one we are faced with. This eschewed representation at the top should actually be one of the issues to feature prominently in the much-awaited plebiscite to amend the Constitution to reflect fair representation.
The twists and turns in the coming months will confound many. Be that as it may, Kenyans expect that the 2022 presidential contest will be devoid of the endless cycle of violence that visits us every time we are holding a presidential election.
