BY KENYATTA OTIENO
Conventional wisdom states that; to get the economic status of a household, do not look at the people who make up the household but at their dog. People have a way of concealing true state of affairs and strong is anyone who can appear as “having it together” in the middle of a storm.
If the dog looks emaciated, then things are tough but if it is healthy and wags its tail then the fortunes are promising. The health of the dog in an average African home setting is determined by what the family eats and how much is left over for the dog. Economically endowed families will feed on more proteins in their diet in quantities that allow for leftovers that the dog feasts on. So next time you meet a man dressed in clean second hand clothes, look at his dog.
Economics lies on the borderline of education disciplines because it is a social science and a science. Humanities won and today you will find Department of Economics in the Faculty of Arts. The formulas, figures and percentages used to describe economics make it difficult for the common man to understand the state of affairs. Dr David Ndii does his best to break down this complex stuff in his bi-weekly column in one of the local dailies.
Beyond GDP and GNP, the more things are broken down the more one is bound to get lost in the details of rabbit trails. So when you hear that Kenyan’s economy is projected to grow at 6% per annum in the next financial year, what does it really mean? I will not try to go into the figures and graphs behind this conclusion. I will leave that to people who are well equipped to do that. To me, these beautiful figures and statements make no sense if the prices for Sugar, Flour and Paraffin are way beyond the reach for the common man. You cannot convince people that the economy is growing yet they do not feel the trickle-down effect of the same.
Forget the periodic economic survey and all the semantics around it. The recent maize flour and sugar shortage has revealed who is who in the economic matrix. If you have ever complained about the price or availability of maize flour, then you are on the poverty end of social class. Wealthier people eat ugali moderately and it can go off the dinner table but everything will still be okay. No need to create a commotion over it, or move all around town looking for the most affordable version of it. From the noise emanating from this maize flour shortage, it means that we are treading on thin economic ice.
The other indicator of poor economic times especially in Nairobi is traffic. First and foremost let it be known that a good number of cars do not often see the roads of Nairobi. Most of the people who drive can least afford the cost that comes with the luxury and convenience of a car. They park them at home and take public transport more often than the times they drive the cars. This means that if one day everyone decides to drive their cars, the streets of Nairobi will be unmanageable. So anytime you see low traffic density in the city on a weekday, know that things are thick.
Traffic is always low on weekends and during the April, August and December school holidays. Currently, traffic is flowing easily on weekdays without the usual jams. In such a scenario, you cannot convince people that the economy is growing. People drive on weekdays because they are going to make money. They will sacrifice the money they have on fuel with the hope of recouping it from a salary or a business sale because money is in circulation. If sales are low, and the salary cannot survive beyond one week, then it does not make sense to put a car on the road. Hence the low traffic densities at this time when schools are in session.
On my recent trips out of town, I have spotted several high-ranking traffic police officers with their juniors on the road manning roadblocks. We all know that these roadblocks are toll stations as the vetting of officers by the Kavuludi led Police Service Commission revealed. It appears that the bosses have been receiving less amounts from their juniors hence the need to go and confirm for themselves on the roads. Things are thick.
The other people who can give us the true status of our economy are school head teachers. As non-profit organizations that run on government allocation and school fees from parents, schools can reveal a lot. No parent can postpone school for the children, they must go to school and fees must be paid. There are parents who tend to pay the whole school fees at the beginning of the term. Then there are those who keep their word and pay it in monthly installments. If things get rough and the first group drops to the second group while the faithful payers become defaulters then head teachers can help us flag the economy when things slow down.
Last, it is leisure. Many people allocate surplus cash to leisure. When our entertainment joints are empty on a Friday evening and the few patrons who venture out are more geared towards killing time than having fun, things are thick. Talks with a few people who run bars in town have told me that sales have dropped considerably. People drink and have fun if they really have to, which means that there is no lose change in the economy. People tend to spend on hope, hope that they will soon get more money. If chances of making money are slim, then expenditure falls to only necessary needs.
Economics formulas give economists lenses to look at the present and project future trends. When it comes to day-to-day life, these figures do not matter to the common man who puts sustenance above everything. To say the least, we are treading on lean economic muscles.
