Kenyan households and businesses are bracing for a fresh dose of pain after the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) announced sharp increases in fuel prices, pushing diesel up by Sh40 per litre and super petrol by Sh28.69 in the latest pricing cycle.
On average, both diesel and petrol will now cost Sh206 while kerosene will remain constant at Sh152.
The adjustment, announced on April 14, immediately undercuts earlier assurances by William Ruto that the government-to-government fuel import deal with Middle Eastern suppliers would cushion consumers from global price shocks.
Instead, the new pricing regime is already rippling through the economy, triggering higher transport fares and raising input costs across sectors.
EPRA attributed the increases to higher landed costs, driven by elevated global oil prices and shipping expenses. The regulator noted that the new pricing comes even after the government reduced value added tax on fuel from 16 percent to 13 percent and deployed a Sh6.5 billion subsidy in an attempt to moderate pump prices.
“Oil marketing companies are cautioned that non-compliance with the recommended maximum wholesale petroleum prices shall attract a fine of not less than Sh5 million as per Section 124 of the Act,” EPRA said, warning retailers against overpricing. It added that violations at the pump could attract stiffer penalties of up to Sh10 million in fines or a minimum five-year jail term.
Despite these measures, the immediate effect has been a surge in transport costs, with matatu operators and long-distance bus companies passing on the burden to commuters. Fare increases on upcountry routes are already ranging between Sh200 and Sh500, reflecting the central role fuel plays in Kenya’s logistics chain.
Bus operator Ena Coach confirmed the adjustments, citing operational pressures. “We have undertaken a careful operational assessment and implemented a necessary adjustment to our fare structure to sustain service across all routes. The revised fares are as follows: Nairobi to upcountry via Narok Sh1,700,” the company said in a customer notice.
The price shock is expected to cascade through the broader economy. Diesel, which powers transport, manufacturing and agriculture, has a particularly strong inflationary effect. As costs rise, businesses are likely to pass them on to consumers, feeding into already elevated prices of food, construction materials and basic goods.
The increases also revive a longstanding concern in Kenya’s energy market—that price hikes tend to be sticky. While global crude prices have fluctuated over the years, consumers rarely benefit from equivalent downward adjustments when costs ease. With global oil prices having nearly doubled from earlier lows of around $60 per barrel, the latest increases risk entrenching a higher cost base across the economy.
Disruptions linked to tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran have constrained shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil supply, further tightening markets and pushing up freight costs.
The latest price adjustments also come against the backdrop of a recent fuel import scandal that has shaken confidence in the sector. Senior officials, including those from Kenya Pipeline Corporation and EPRA, were implicated in a Sh6 billion controversy involving alleged irregular imports, though prosecutions have yet to follow. The episode has amplified public scepticism over pricing mechanisms and governance in the petroleum supply chain.
Higher fuel costs translate directly into more expensive commutes, pricier goods and tighter household budgets. For businesses, especially in transport and manufacturing, margins are being squeezed as operating costs climb.
There are also fears of unintended consequences especially with kerosene prices remaining relatively stable compared to diesel and petrol, observers warn of a potential resurgence in fuel adulteration—a practice that had previously distorted the market and posed risks to engines and public safety.
The increases has now reopened another chapter in the debate over taxation and energy policy. During his campaign, President Ruto had criticised the previous administration under Uhuru Kenyatta for imposing multiple taxes on fuel, arguing that they drove up pump prices. The current spike, however, underscores the limits of domestic policy in the face of global market forces.
Ruto recently said the government is taking steps to cushion consumers, including setting aside Sh6.5 billion for fuel subsidies and reducing VAT from 16 percent to 13 percent to ease the burden at the pump. “We have intervened to moderate costs… many other countries do not have such support,” President William Ruto said.
Ruto had sharply criticised the previous administration under Uhuru Kenyatta for driving up fuel prices through multiple taxes, arguing that the levies imposed on consumers would be reduced under his leadership. “The increase in the cost of fuel is largely due to taxation,” he said at the time.
